When newly built, their population is typically dominated by young families. There are lots of young children, and lots of youngish parents. The age separation between the peak age group of children and the peak age group of parents is typically 25 to 30 years. This is the baby-boom phase of the neighbourhood life cycle.
Each subsequent census, at 5 year intervals, shows the peaks moving up in age and flattening slightly. Typically, the number of children in the 0-4 age group begins to drop off almost immediately. This is the start of the baby-bust phase of the neighbourhood life cycle.
This trend continues for 20-25 years until most of the children have grown and left their parents homes. At this point, the parents are typically about 50 years old. Most of them will stay in their original neighbourhood homes for another 15-20 years, even though their children have now gone. This is the depth of the baby-bust phase.
Finally, once the neighbourhood is about 30-40 years old, the original inhabitants begin selling their houses in ever larger numbers, usually to younger couples with children. The number of children then rises again, although never as high as in the original baby-boom phase. Instead, the neighbourhood approaches a steady-state equilibrium, where the age distribution is quite flat from 0 to 50 years of age.
This neighbourhood Life Cycle sufficiently predictable that it seems to me that planners should take it into account. When planning, especially for schools, but also for other facilities, they should first plan for what will be needed when the neighbourhood is 35 years old, and then decide how they will deal with the bumps in population in the first few decades.
Example of new Neighbourhood - First decades:
Census Tract
7050100.08
(Gardiner Heights, Wood Meadows, River Bend)
is a good example of the first couple of decades.
This area first appears as a Census Tract in the 1991 Census.
Most of the house were built in the period from 1986 to 1991.
This area is heading into the baby-bust phase of its
life cycle.
Example of Neighbourhood into Baby-Bust phase:
Census Tract
7050002.01
(Albert Park in south-west) is a good example
of a neighbourhood that is well into the baby-bust phase
of its life cycle.
Examples of Neighbourhoods into Steady-State phase:
Census Tract 7050019.00 (North Central between Lewvan and Elphinstone),
Census Tract 7050020.00 (Coventry Place), and
Census Tract 7050021.00 (Rosemont / Transcona)
are examples of neighbourhoods that are settling into a steady-state.
Most houses were built prior to 1960, and very few are still occupied
by the original owners. The houses have been recycled to new
occupants, and the age distribution from 0 to 50 is quite flat.
Exceptions:
There are a number of factors that make for exceptions:
If a neighbourhood is close to downtown, or close to the University,
or simply in a area with good access to the University, there
will be a large number of 20 somethings.
Census Tract 7050003.00 (South Lakeview between Hill Ave and Parliament)
is a good example.
Neighbourhoods with a high proportion of seniors.
Census Tract 7050022.01 (Pioneer Village).
Neighbourhoods with very expensive single-family dwellings
seem to start life already heading into the baby-bust phase
of their life cycle.
Census Tract 7050100.12 (Varsity Park, Richmond Place and Wascana View)
are a good example.
What of the Future ....
Neighbourhoods with a large proportion of low-cost single-family
dwelling traditionally act as "incubators" for young families,
who then move to other neighbourhoods as their children get older.
These are the classic "Starter Homes". The rapid rise in house prices
over the past few years may result in young families staying in their
starter homes much longer. Those neighbourhoods would then retain
a larger portion of their children.